New Middle East in the Light of Islamic Awakening | ||
New Middle East in the Light of Islamic Awakening By Hameideh Hosseini For years the American and Zionist strategists had tried to ramp the Middle East and reshape it into their own scheme called the new Middle East, but to the astonishment of all analysts and politicians, with a period of one year, the political landscape is the Middle east underwent a huge change within the framework of Islamic awakening. Israel's American-backed attempts to bomb Hezbollah and South Lebanon into submission in 2006 did not change the region, as Condoleezza Rice predicted it would. Nor did the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq few years earlier, which former President George W. Bush touted as introducing democracy to the Arab world, have much effect. The change now is coming from within – and from below based on Islam and people’s traditions, culture and civilization. Ordinary people taking to the streets swept away the presidents of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen. The president of Bahrain and Saudi king are fighting for survival. Saleh of Yemen is trying to keep his influence, despite the fact that he has fled to the United States. Arab leaders almost everywhere else are trying to fend off real or potential challenges with a mix of repression and concessions. "The rulers are running scared, with good reason – the people have terrified them," Rashid Khalidi, professor of Arab studies at Columbia University in New York, told the Daily Star. "The specter of popular power haunts the dictators and monarchs." The region's mostly Muslim citizens are at last proving they are no exception to the democratic trends that have transformed Eastern Europe, Latin America and much of Africa and Asia in recent decades. Moreover, the with the wave of Islamic Awakening on its rise, it seems that the Muslims in the Middle East have one more reason to fight autocracy and dictatorship ruling their countries for decades. Reshaping the Middle East Live media coverage has thrust protests and violence in one Arab city into Arab homes everywhere. The Islamic awakening movement will reshape the Arab world as powerfully as the ideologies of Arab nationalism, socialism and communism in the last 150 years. It is a sea change. The change is profound. It hits people's identities, their core. Islam is the most powerful current, as a modernized paradigm, Islam has in superseded and absorbed all other ideologies and ‘isms’, by incorporating the democratic, pluralist, human rights value system. It has become the dominant trend. But ousting authoritarian rulers is one thing, installing stable systems of representative government quite another. Success will depend partly on how well elected governments handle the social problems and economic hardships which, along with a yearning for freedom and dignity, have fuelled unrest from Algeria to Oman. Some Arab rulers will ride out the storm - the monarchies seem slightly less vulnerable than the republics so far. The question is what happens next? The answer will differ from country to country. Broadly speaking, Arab leaders have responded in three ways to the pent-up frustrations that have burst into street protests. Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali bowed to people power, grudgingly stepping down after their generals withdrew support and showed them the door. Others, most especially countries in the Persian Gulf, have tried to preempt protests by offering bribes, often combined with promises of political reform. In Bahrain, the ruling dynasty has resorted to naked force to cling to power. Moammar Gadhafi, who had ruled Libya for forty one years, and whose bloody crackdown on protests helped trigger an armed revolt, faced the bloodiest end among the three overthrown Arab rulers. But Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen have also ungloved iron fists against protesters not content with economic handouts and discrimination. In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh looks doomed as even his own clan has turned against him. Some will not change yet But Saudi Arabia has made clear it will not tolerate dissent at home or serious challenges to Sunni rule in other Persian Gulf countries, particularly in Shiite-majority Bahrain where Riyadh has sent 1,000 troops to help suppress the island's democratic protests. In countries which have offered reform – Morocco, Algeria, Jordan – it remains to be seen whether leaders will stick to pledges and peacefully cede real power, or find ways to divide, co-opt or cow their opponents. Thus far, no Arab ruler has really made a substantial offer of political reform to protesters. The closest appears to be the offer of constitutional reforms presented by Mohammad VI of Morocco, but he has hedged that offer pretty significantly. King Mohammad unveiled plans in March for a 19-member team – named by himself – to draft constitutional changes to strengthen Parliament, empower local officials and promote judicial independence. Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika lifted a 19-year-old state of emergency and offered unspecified political reforms in February, but has not yielded to demands for constitutional amendments to limit presidential terms and allow new parties. Jordan’s King Abdullah has so far resisted pressure for a constitutional monarchy or an elected government. No matter what happens in those other countries, all Arabs will be watching Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, which are already on the stony path to more representative government. Egypt’s military rulers have set a tight time-table for a return to civilian rule, with parliamentary and presidential polls. A new constitution is also planned. The Islamists have won the majority of Parliamentary seats. In Tunisia, majority of voters picked Islamists as their representatives in the 200-member assembly to elect interim leaders and draft a new constitution. Such changes were not easy in countries where past regimes relied on patronage and allocations to buy support. The challenges turn on shifting the base of popular acceptance of rule from a material to a policy basis. Perhaps the biggest hurdle to transforming a country like Egypt will be working out what role the military should play. Hamideh Hosseini is a MA student, University of Tehran. | ||
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